The following is based on research that I did for something altogether different, but when I find out cool stuff, I like to put it into the context of the toy world. I also have to get some experience writing essays again, as I haven't done that in a long time.
___________
Perhaps the greatest irony of GI Joe, and one to which we have all become accustomed, is that the ?Real American Hero? is actually a ?Real Chinese Hero?. Every figure in the line has a ?Made in China? or ?Made in Hong Kong? stamp on his behind, and this has for so long been accepted as part of the Joe reality, that the irony is all but lost.
But a greater irony for the modern era is that G.I. Joe is threatened by Communism and Terrorism of the real, not imaginary kind. Both Marxism and Radical fundamentalist Islam threaten the toy industry in ways that the average toy buyer might never know about.
70% of the toys created in the world, are produced in the Shenzen economic zone in Hong Kong that runs along the northern border. The capacity for manufacturing there is incomparably huge, supplying most of the inexpensive plastic based goods that you find in your average big box store anywhere in the world. The reason that this area has become the driving force for the creation of everything manufactured and plastic, is the confluence of the two most important elements of mass manufacturing ? cheap energy and cheap labor. The reason that an action figure can be produced for sale at a $2-$5 price point and shipped half way around the world is because the production cost of such figures is almost unfathomably low.
The labor is the first element that is threatened, and the threat, in the sweetest of ironies, is communism. As it turns out, there is a real and palpable fear of communism breaking out in communist China. As it turns out, China is now a nation that is communist in name only. China is achieving economic growth at an average of about 7% every year for the last 20 years. To enable that kind of growth, the government has allowed factory owners them to operate without restrictions to increase production in any way that they can, often creating less than ideal working conditions, employee treatment, and somewhat shady behavior.
The situation in China has been described as similar to that in England during the industrial boon, where factory owners had the ear of the government, police, and all other public bodies, and were able to use these resources to run their businesses without interference or restriction. These conditions were what set Karl Marx to writing a manifesto about communism and collective workers rights.
Good Chinese, and especially the older generations were taught about the benefits of communism and the writings of Mao and Marx, in the way that Baptists are taught about the bible. These writings and the ideas that they hold are not new, and in fact were preached vehemently by the government for 60+ years. The idea of people rising up against deplorable economic and labor disparity is not new, nor would it take a huge effort to justify this sort of action given the economic and labor conditions in place. Add to that the information sharing power of the internet and the massive size of China?s population, and the idea of a communist revolution in China is something that could reasonably be considered to be a threat to the manufacturing industry that China depends on for economic growth.
What effect would a Chinese communist revolution have on G.I. Joe (and the many other toys produced in china)? The effect would range from an increase in prices for manufactured goods, perhaps even to the point where reasonable price points or entire toy lines can not be maintained. Also, a revolution could lead to significant disruption in manufacturing, delivery and supply chain elements, making China an unreliable source of trade goods. Without China, other production areas with similarly favorable circumstances would need to be developed and maintained, with cheap labor, abundant energy and delivery infrastructure. This is something that the global toy market is not in a position to create, having poured resources into China to develop the infrastructure for over 30 years.
The second half of the equation is energy, and in the case of our favorite plastic fighting men, this means fossil fuels and petrochemicals - particularly, fuel oil, natural gas and petrochemicals required for plastic. Keeping the petrochemicals that are needed to maintain the manufacturing power of northern China running is a critical priority for the government ? so critical that they are sinking billions of dollars in creating the pipeline infrastructure to get natural gas and crude oil through the Taklamakan desert from Kazakhstan.
China and the Islamic Uighurs, Kazakhs and other Islamic peoples of the region have been fighting over the area since infantry were armed with spear and sword. It?s also safe to say that the central Asian Islamic people are not winning this fight, and are not prospering equally under Chinese rule. Resistance groups often labeled rightly or wrongly as ?terrorist? groups have popular support in some areas, and have taken up arms against China. Worst of all, Xinjiang?s border is porous, and mountainous, exactly the kind of area that groups waging a guerrilla campaign against a large government have been most successful at using to their benefit.
The Chinese government is taking the threat seriously, even going so far as having the US declare the Uighur political party, and the East Turkistan Islamic movement added to the list of known terrorist groups. Strikes against manufacturing do happen, though quantity and effect of the attacks are hard to tell, as very little news makes it out of this area due to Chinese government censorship. The strikes whatever their size or intensity, have not been significantly disrupting the production of trade goods, as the Chinese government, (through the most draconian of measures) have crushed out most real resistance in the more centralized manufacturing zones. However, a pipeline of the length that will be needed to keep the resources flowing into the manufacturing zone will be impossible to defend. Failing to have the pipeline will render the manufacturing zone unable to produce products cheaply, having to ship by truck the materials that are needed to support the manufacturing process. It is very reasonable to assume that the remaining Fundamentalist terrorists might be waiting for a chance to strike at the pipeline operations as a way to hurt China.
A lack of inexpensive and plentiful energy and petrochemicals will have the same effect on the production of plastic action figures as a lack of inexpensive labor, which is to say the driving up of prices, and the driving down of capacity. Should terrorists take a serious interest in disrupting the pipeline infrastructure, the manufacturing would face either long and potentially crippling shortages of raw materials, or shorter term but still significant inconveniences that would make shipping and supply unreliable, and undesirable for large companies like Hasbro. The complex and highly time dependent supply chain that puts toys and other manufactured goods on retail shelves would become unpredictable which is not only complicated, but extremely bad for business.
It?s important to note that no other place on earth can easily be configured to match the manufacturing capacity of China's economic zone. The confluence of cheap energy and cheap labor that make that kind of inexpensive production possible can?t be replicated in any other area. Hasbro, and the rest of the world?s toy manufacturers do not have another option that can handle the capacity that China provides. Should that capacity become unavailable, 100% of the world?s toy trade will be competing to use the other 30% of the world?s toy manufacturing capacity. Only the most profitable, least complicated and least resource intensive toys will be able to be made at a profit, even if the capacity isn?t already absorbed by the many non-toy plastic manufacturing requirements that are also serviced in China.
The ?Real American Hero? faces threats from foreign fighters in foreign lands, but this time, these fighters are not figments of Larry Hama or Daryl DePriest?s imagination. Joe is in a very tight spot in the world, facing off bigger threats than fanboy dislike or marketing demographic shifts. And this is a fight that they may not be able to win.
-
