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[Raptor]

The following is based on research that I did for something altogether different, but when I find out cool stuff, I like to put it into the context of the toy world. I also have to get some experience writing essays again, as I haven't done that in a long time.

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Perhaps the greatest irony of GI Joe, and one to which we have all become accustomed, is that the ?Real American Hero? is actually a ?Real Chinese Hero?. Every figure in the line has a ?Made in China? or ?Made in Hong Kong? stamp on his behind, and this has for so long been accepted as part of the Joe reality, that the irony is all but lost.

But a greater irony for the modern era is that G.I. Joe is threatened by Communism and Terrorism of the real, not imaginary kind. Both Marxism and Radical fundamentalist Islam threaten the toy industry in ways that the average toy buyer might never know about.

70% of the toys created in the world, are produced in the Shenzen economic zone in Hong Kong that runs along the northern border. The capacity for manufacturing there is incomparably huge, supplying most of the inexpensive plastic based goods that you find in your average big box store anywhere in the world. The reason that this area has become the driving force for the creation of everything manufactured and plastic, is the confluence of the two most important elements of mass manufacturing ? cheap energy and cheap labor. The reason that an action figure can be produced for sale at a $2-$5 price point and shipped half way around the world is because the production cost of such figures is almost unfathomably low.

The labor is the first element that is threatened, and the threat, in the sweetest of ironies, is communism. As it turns out, there is a real and palpable fear of communism breaking out in communist China. As it turns out, China is now a nation that is communist in name only. China is achieving economic growth at an average of about 7% every year for the last 20 years. To enable that kind of growth, the government has allowed factory owners them to operate without restrictions to increase production in any way that they can, often creating less than ideal working conditions, employee treatment, and somewhat shady behavior.

The situation in China has been described as similar to that in England during the industrial boon, where factory owners had the ear of the government, police, and all other public bodies, and were able to use these resources to run their businesses without interference or restriction. These conditions were what set Karl Marx to writing a manifesto about communism and collective workers rights.

Good Chinese, and especially the older generations were taught about the benefits of communism and the writings of Mao and Marx, in the way that Baptists are taught about the bible. These writings and the ideas that they hold are not new, and in fact were preached vehemently by the government for 60+ years. The idea of people rising up against deplorable economic and labor disparity is not new, nor would it take a huge effort to justify this sort of action given the economic and labor conditions in place. Add to that the information sharing power of the internet and the massive size of China?s population, and the idea of a communist revolution in China is something that could reasonably be considered to be a threat to the manufacturing industry that China depends on for economic growth.

What effect would a Chinese communist revolution have on G.I. Joe (and the many other toys produced in china)? The effect would range from an increase in prices for manufactured goods, perhaps even to the point where reasonable price points or entire toy lines can not be maintained. Also, a revolution could lead to significant disruption in manufacturing, delivery and supply chain elements, making China an unreliable source of trade goods. Without China, other production areas with similarly favorable circumstances would need to be developed and maintained, with cheap labor, abundant energy and delivery infrastructure. This is something that the global toy market is not in a position to create, having poured resources into China to develop the infrastructure for over 30 years.

The second half of the equation is energy, and in the case of our favorite plastic fighting men, this means fossil fuels and petrochemicals - particularly, fuel oil, natural gas and petrochemicals required for plastic. Keeping the petrochemicals that are needed to maintain the manufacturing power of northern China running is a critical priority for the government ? so critical that they are sinking billions of dollars in creating the pipeline infrastructure to get natural gas and crude oil through the Taklamakan desert from Kazakhstan.

China and the Islamic Uighurs, Kazakhs and other Islamic peoples of the region have been fighting over the area since infantry were armed with spear and sword. It?s also safe to say that the central Asian Islamic people are not winning this fight, and are not prospering equally under Chinese rule. Resistance groups often labeled rightly or wrongly as ?terrorist? groups have popular support in some areas, and have taken up arms against China. Worst of all, Xinjiang?s border is porous, and mountainous, exactly the kind of area that groups waging a guerrilla campaign against a large government have been most successful at using to their benefit.

The Chinese government is taking the threat seriously, even going so far as having the US declare the Uighur political party, and the East Turkistan Islamic movement added to the list of known terrorist groups. Strikes against manufacturing do happen, though quantity and effect of the attacks are hard to tell, as very little news makes it out of this area due to Chinese government censorship. The strikes whatever their size or intensity, have not been significantly disrupting the production of trade goods, as the Chinese government, (through the most draconian of measures) have crushed out most real resistance in the more centralized manufacturing zones. However, a pipeline of the length that will be needed to keep the resources flowing into the manufacturing zone will be impossible to defend. Failing to have the pipeline will render the manufacturing zone unable to produce products cheaply, having to ship by truck the materials that are needed to support the manufacturing process. It is very reasonable to assume that the remaining Fundamentalist terrorists might be waiting for a chance to strike at the pipeline operations as a way to hurt China.

A lack of inexpensive and plentiful energy and petrochemicals will have the same effect on the production of plastic action figures as a lack of inexpensive labor, which is to say the driving up of prices, and the driving down of capacity. Should terrorists take a serious interest in disrupting the pipeline infrastructure, the manufacturing would face either long and potentially crippling shortages of raw materials, or shorter term but still significant inconveniences that would make shipping and supply unreliable, and undesirable for large companies like Hasbro. The complex and highly time dependent supply chain that puts toys and other manufactured goods on retail shelves would become unpredictable which is not only complicated, but extremely bad for business.

It?s important to note that no other place on earth can easily be configured to match the manufacturing capacity of China's economic zone. The confluence of cheap energy and cheap labor that make that kind of inexpensive production possible can?t be replicated in any other area. Hasbro, and the rest of the world?s toy manufacturers do not have another option that can handle the capacity that China provides. Should that capacity become unavailable, 100% of the world?s toy trade will be competing to use the other 30% of the world?s toy manufacturing capacity. Only the most profitable, least complicated and least resource intensive toys will be able to be made at a profit, even if the capacity isn?t already absorbed by the many non-toy plastic manufacturing requirements that are also serviced in China.

The ?Real American Hero? faces threats from foreign fighters in foreign lands, but this time, these fighters are not figments of Larry Hama or Daryl DePriest?s imagination. Joe is in a very tight spot in the world, facing off bigger threats than fanboy dislike or marketing demographic shifts. And this is a fight that they may not be able to win.

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[TheCheznit8]

Hey Raptor, your research is very thoughtful and well written.  For the most part, I agree with what your saying.

The manufacturing abilities of China - and to an increasingly large extent India - is now far greater than what the Americans were able to do 50 years ago.  It was manufacturing that won the war for the allies against the Nazis, and that power lead to America's place as the THE super power of the last half of the century.

I like to think that China and India are in the same position as America (and Canada) were in the 40s and 50s.  There is great potential and enthusiasm by the people to excel and grow in the East.  In the West, our people are well educated, but we don't have the manufacturing might that we did 50 years ago, and we've outsourced those low-brow jobs to other countries who need them.

Another problem we have in the West is that of population growth, in that we are not having as many children and for the most part, immigration keeps our numbers from hitting the zero mark for growth (Germany and Japan being the greatest examples of post industrialist countries with populations that are not making enough babies to counteract the number of deaths).

In all the great capitalist societies, a growing and vigorous population keeps the economy going, and it seems as though we have already hit the pinnacle of our boom period and now we are slowly descending down the slope of the long bust.  Capiltalist countries are constantly going through cycles of boom and bust, but perhaps over the long haul, we have been losing ground to countries who are ready to take up the place of our former manufacturing and productive might.  and if that is the case, then what is 330 million people (combined population of Canada and America) to 3 billion people (combined population of India and China)?  300 million is the size of India's middle class alone.


Sorry if I've digressed from the topic of toy collecting, my mind wanders sometimes, .

Raptor, you make it seem that Communism and Islamic Fundamentalism will hamper our toy collecting hobby.   You've compared the industrial situation of Europe in the 19th and 20th century to China's situation.  And you're right, there were/are so many civil rights violations being perpetrated against the working class than and now.  You dont need Communism to start a revolt against the government and corporations, just the reasonable need for equality, civil rights, and good treatment that all human beings deserve, not just in the West, but everywhere.  So the Chinese may use the banner of communism to rally their people for a common cause, but their grievances are the same that the working class had during the revolutions in the democracies of Europe and N. America, the very same grievances and revolts that led to better pay and rights for our working class parents today.

And if anyone deserves equality, it is countries like China and India, who's people have been used as vassals by smaller yet powerful countries for far too long.  Again, I'd like to reiterate that the will of a few hundred million souls cannot force their will upon Billions of souls for long.

Its taken us 50 years to get to the place that we are today, it will only take the East 25 to match us, and it is an inevitability that they will demand the same use of resources and rights that we do today.

What does that mean for our toys?  Well it already seems like our Marvel Legends are going the way of the Dodo bird.  Hasbro is making their super hero line in the new 5 inch standard.  Bigger toys means more oil is needed and a higher price point to boot.  So this may not be such a bad thing after all.  Mayble they'll just move down to the 3 3/4 like GIJoe and Star Wars, which would be a great thing for us as collectors, because we would have more figures to expand our personal universes.


But is it all roses and honey?? I dont know, im still just a kid in a young adult's body .  Sometimes I think that our desire to build greater and greater legions of Joe armies, is a think of our generation; a throwback to a time when bigger was better, and there were plentiful resources for everyone, at a low price point to boot.  But I think that our kids and future generations will grow up with the idea that they can't have everything, and that it is unreasonable to think in that way. 

After all, if we all want to be efficient and have less of an impact on the environment/resources and be more efficient as citizens and human beings, than it might mean changing our ways so future generations can learn from us. 

However, its one thing to preach and yet another to actually do it.  I know that my inner kid won't be satisifed until I have all of the G.I.Joe vehicles and at least a few hundred figures.  But kids of today are moving on to the next big thing, and i think that for the kids of today, I don't think that they will need as much hard plastic as we yearned for when we were kids.  At least I hope that is the case.

Raptor, at the end of your post you say that we are threatened by Islamic hardliners and Communism, but really it all boils down to treating our fellow man with respect and dignity, which means we cant continue to hog the world's resources and energy.  It sounds so cliche to say it, but we really do need to learn to share the wealth and help our fellow man, not to impose our collective will upon them. 

[Pete The Greek]

And you don't have time. ha.

The bigger problem I have with China is the lack of environmental regulations.  They have a free reign to do what they want to do.  And this will catch up to them very quickly, including us.

[Stealth Viper]

And you don't have time. ha.

The bigger problem I have with China is the lack of environmental regulations.  They have a free reign to do what they want to do.  And this will catch up to them very quickly, including us.

You have no idea how right you are. Having spent over a month there (total), I can tell you that it's worse than you think, and it's not going to get any better any time soon.


China's big problem right now is lack of people. Yes you read that right. Lack of people.

How is this possible you may ask?

Years ago, China imposed a "1 child per family" quota on its population to control the growth. This caused a big problem in itself, as in China it is very important to have a son to carry on the family name - so daughters were often aborted or killed.

This results in an very unhealthy male to female ratio.

It's not that you can't have more kids, it's just that the fine is so heavy for additional children that the vast majority of the population can't afford it.

So, due to the "1 child per family" deal, China effectively cuts its' population in half within a couple generations... and the vast majority of these people are male, so it's going to be hard to fix that problem in this generation, anyway.

Now China is in it's industrial/economic growth spurt. Businesses and factories are popping up faster than you can blink an eye, thanks to cheap Chinese labour. The problem is that the work force is now more limited thanks to birth restrictions, and company loyalty all but doesn't exist - if someone can make $10 more a month somewhere else, they'll leave. Unemployment is virtually gone - or will be soon.

So what's happening is all these businesses and factories are fighting over workers, and can't keep them as the business next door will pay them more. This will result in the higher cost of goods manufactured in China, which will result in higher prices on the items we buy so cheaply now (including our beloved Joe). People with no skills are put to work in a skilled trade, and expected to "pick it up" as they go along  - because no one else is available. The ones actually TRAINED in the trade are making more than most Chinese factories/businesses can pay, or risk negating their price advantage.

It's a big problem, that's only going to get worse. It will effect us here, in cost of product. Count on it.